Maharashtra assembly election: A complex political landscape emerges

Mumbai: As Maharashtra prepares for its assembly election on November 20, the state’s volatile political atmosphere shows little sign of abating. Despite hopes for a stable government in Mantralaya before year’s end, recent developments suggest a more complicated scenario.
Politicians and analysts alike predict one of the most complex assembly elections in Maharashtra’s history. Unlike the national elections, which presented a clear battle between two narratives, the state faces a mix of multiple issues and factors in a crowded political arena.
“The battle between the two coalitions could be close and may even result in a hung house,” says Padmabhushan Deshpande, a Mumbai-based political analyst.
Following splits in Shiv Sena in 2022 and NCP in 2023, six prominent political parties are now in the fray. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, BJP, and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP form one alliance. Opposing them is a coalition of Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT).
A third front has emerged, led by legislator Bachhu Kadu, alongside smaller parties like Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati’s Swarajya Paksha and Raju Shetti’s Swabhimani Sanghatana. Other minor parties include Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.
The ruling Mahayuti alliance, following its setback in the Lok Sabha elections, has implemented a series of populist measures. Their “Ladki Bahin Yojna” scheme, providing ₹1,500 monthly aid to poor women, has garnered significant support among female voters.
Caste polarisation has reached unprecedented levels, with the Mahayuti alliance systematically mobilising Other Backward Class (OBC) groups to counter the Maratha community. The alliance has also announced welfare corporations for smaller castes and communities, potentially swaying voter opinions.
Regional dynamics will play a crucial role. The MVA’s stronghold in Vidarbha, Marathwada, western Maharashtra, and north Maharashtra contrasts with the Mahayuti’s dominance in Konkan and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR). Mumbai’s 36 seats are expected to see a close battle, unlike in the Lok Sabha elections where the MVA won four out of six seats.
“There is anti-incumbency against the ruling parties, but they have taken steps to counter it,” Deshpande notes. “The Haryana-like situation, which included mobilisation of smaller communities and division of votes against the ruling parties due to the presence of small parties, could happen in Maharashtra too.”